“We shall overcome”. By 2030:
Most of us want to see a world where every life is
valued, protected, nurtured and flourished. A world where there is no one dies
of starvation, no one dies untreated, no severely malnourished or stunted
child, no illiterate or unskilled youth, no homeless destitute, no gender
stereotype, no civic choices, orientations, cultures or enterprises are
violated, no hegemony, no cartel, no crony capitalism, no elitism, no
dogmatism, no fanaticism.. And yes- there is ample opportunity to learn and
build human capabilities- for all. Ample jobs/ livelihood options matching to the
skills & capabilities- for all. Decent place to live- for all. Water, power,
education, healthcare, sanitation, finance –for all. And indeed in that world
there would be space, scope & patronage for creativity, for innovation, for
expression, for sports, for culture, for art, for adventure, for discovery….
Much of it was envisaged at the dawn of the new
millennium under the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). It is now less than
500 days before the MDG is over. Sure, there
will be many targets unfulfilled, many indicators unmet. And perhaps another
goal for another 15 years will be set– Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2030.
It will draw criticism & sarcasm but there is no denying that humanity is
getting more and more concerned and determined to make it a much better world
in the foreseeable future. In the words of Bill Gates “By almost any measure,
the world is better than it has ever been. People are living longer, healthier
lives. Many nations that were aid recipients are now self-sufficient. You might
think that such striking progress would be widely celebrated, but in fact,
Melinda and I are struck by how many people think the world is getting worse.
The belief that the world can’t solve extreme poverty and disease isn’t just
mistaken. It is harmful…..” (from Melinda
& Bill Gates Annual Letter, 2014).
We must appreciate that great strides have been made in almost all areas
of human endeavor-
science, trade, society, art, sports, culture…every sphere. It may yet not be as
we desire it to be. But it is substantial. And directional. Again to borrow
from Melinda & Bill Gates’ letter: “a baby born in 1960 had an 18 percent
chance of dying before her fifth birthday. For a child born today, the odds are
less than 5 percent. In 2035, they will be 1.6 percent. I can’t think of any
other 75-year improvement in human welfare that would even come close.” He
further comments on this optimistic trend: “I am optimistic enough about this
that I am willing to make a prediction. By
2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world. (I
mean by our current definition of poor.).”
A Tale of Two Cities
Mexico City 1980
Mexico City 2011
[Courtesy: Melinda
& Bills Annual Letter 2014]
While these
expectations are based on reality, there are some amazing predictions by
futurologists. They feel humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in
all of human history. By 2030 the average person in the U.S. will travel 40% of
the time in a driverless car, use a 3D printer to
print hyper-individualized meals, and will spend most of their leisure time on
an activity that hasn’t been invented yet. The world will have seen over 2
billion jobs disappear, with most coming back in
different forms in different industries, with over 50% structured as freelance
projects rather than full-time jobs. Over 50% of today’s Fortune 500 companies
will have disappeared, over 50% of traditional
colleges will have collapsed, and India will have
overtaken China as the most populous country in the
world. By 2030 80% of all doctor visits will have been replaced by automated
exams and most people will have stopped taking pills in favor of a new device
that causes the body to manufacture it’s own cures. Space colonies, personal
privacy, and flying cars will all be hot topics of discussion, but not a
reality yet.”
It sounds cool. Shows great faith in human capabilities.
But little sky-fi types, right? So let’s get back to track one above. Let’s make
a more realistic To Do List for 2030 for our own country- India
(that is 1/6th of earth’s people anyway). Let’s flag it as #2030NOW.
That envisions by 2030, in India:
1) Absolute poverty will be thing of
past. Hunger & malnutrition too
2) All will have access to safe
drinking water & sanitation
3) All will have basic housing. And all
homes are lit in the night
4) Illiteracy will be thing of past. Higher
education will be pervasive and hybrid- combination of digital &
conventional
5) All will have basic health insurance
coverage. And life expectancy (at birth) will cross 70 years
6) All will be financially included.
And mobile banking a routine thing.
7) Successful PPP models in critical
services, at scale.
8) 10 medals in Olympics, qualified
for FIFA cup, 5th time World Champion in Cricket
9) Couple of Nobel prizes more
10) Bullet trains plying between some major
metros
And
11) Unemployment will still be a
problem- but less acute
12) Quality of public services &
faculties will still be sub-optimal- but no more dismal
13) Hardliners and regressive forces
will still be there- though much less active
14) Corruption will still haunt us-
though much contained, much less rampant
15) Ganga not fully rid of pollution
yet- but floods & land erosions contained
16) Space exploration beyond Mars yet
to succeed- but in the offing
All this could be a reality in 2030. For that we
need to strengthen four pillars of our society:
Youth: Our future is our youth. Any
country’s is. But we have the largest young population un the earth! And they
are more aware, educated and aspiring than ever before. They are more connected,
more active and there is more much solidarity for worthy causes. They are eager
to experiment, innovate and push the boundaries. They love fun, peace,
knowledge and above all doing. And they are capable like never before. This
youth power if harnessed and energized towards the greater good it can do
miracle. In business, in social solutions, in science, sports & art and
even in governance. We need to listen and respond to their voices- in social
media or at home. And above all we need to create the ambiance where rote
learning is not the order, dissent is not frowned upon, mediocrity is not
thrust upon them, unconventional is not taboo. We need to recognize and reward
the Malalalas and Zukerbergs we have among our youth. And believe me there are
so many of them. Waiting to be unleashed. They can move the earth. It reminds
Swami Vivekananda: “Give me 1000 young boys & girls, I will change the
world.”
Institutions: Its our past. We cannot bask in
those past glories forever. We need to modernize them- make them ‘upto the
speed’. And it’s a real challenge here. Much needs to be done. Structurally indeed,
but lot more needs to be done about mindsets and vested interests. Autonomy of
the institutions is non-negotiable. But so is its accountability. All the
institutions- whether in governance, research, education, healthcare, trade
& commerce or sports or culture and yes, civil society organizations- all
needs to spell out its mandates, targets & deliverables and should be
evaluated on those. All stake holders in
these institutions should aspire to be world-class while delivering the best
for its clients (generally public) in the most transparent & efficient ways.
Here the ROI is of prime consideration- not necessarily in financial terms but
definitely in terms of its stated goals & objectives. For next fifteen
years the message should go loud & clear: shape up or ship out. For all
concerned.
Government: Government is best as the enabler and regulator. It should be led by
statesmanship- not by partisan considerations. Government should function within
the framework of Constitution only- not by ruling party’s priorities (or
compulsions). If the civil servants stick to this wonderful instrument of
governance i.e. Constitution, and if the political leadership/ ministers stick
to their oath of undiluted public service, much of the desired outcome can be
achieved easily- and definitely by 2030. All it needs to do is to get rid of
petty politics, archaic laws, and procedural bottlenecks and that can be done
with strong political will and servant-leader attitude. If leaders set the
right strategic priorities, the prospect of a virtuous cycle of development
that transforms whole societies is very real. If we only follow Gandhi’s thought: “Recall the face of the
poorest and weakest man you have seen, and ask yourself if this step you
contemplate is going to be any use to him”, most of the policies and,
strategies will become simpler, humane and would deliver results that matter. One more thing, government should do what it does
best- augment opportunities, build infrastructures, harness networks, create
the environment for growth and be open, flexible and responsive to the needs of
the time. It should be sensitive to its potential partners in progress- civil society,
private sector, academics and must take on board similar efforts of development
– converging rather than monopolizing.
Citizens-
last but
not the least, we ourselves. We need to be less tolerant sometimes. Towards
inequity, injustice, corruption & sufferings. We cannot look the other way
when rights are violated, public places are littered or bribes are demanded. We
cannot look through when a half-naked boy collects garbage or when homeless
beggars freeze in the open. We need to be more in tune with to our children-
our future. We should dream their dreams- rather than imposing ours. We should
not hold them back because the convention or neighbors or extended family says
so. And we should learn to take things in hand rather than a spectator. We
should not live in silos, in glasshouses thinking it a tiny paradise that is never
disturbed by the world outside. We should engage- whether in keeping the neighborhood
clean or keeping harmony in the community or protesting against unjust social
mores or institutional excesses or to respond to the call of services (in cases
of disasters, poverty, illiteracy and so on) or to demand services and
accountability or to exercise the voting franchise thoughtfully. A thriving
citizenry will ensure a vibrant future- for all of us. This will help us overcome
today’s shortcomings. By 2030. For sure.
