“We shall overcome”. By 2030:

Most of us want to see a world where every life is valued, protected, nurtured and flourished. A world where there is no one dies of starvation, no one dies untreated, no severely malnourished or stunted child, no illiterate or unskilled youth, no homeless destitute, no gender stereotype, no civic choices, orientations, cultures or enterprises are violated, no hegemony, no cartel, no crony capitalism, no elitism, no dogmatism, no fanaticism.. And yes- there is ample opportunity to learn and build human capabilities- for all. Ample jobs/ livelihood options matching to the skills & capabilities- for all. Decent place to live- for all. Water, power, education, healthcare, sanitation, finance –for all. And indeed in that world there would be space, scope & patronage for creativity, for innovation, for expression, for sports, for culture, for art, for adventure, for discovery….

Much of it was envisaged at the dawn of the new millennium under the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). It is now less than 500 days before the MDG is over.  Sure, there will be many targets unfulfilled, many indicators unmet. And perhaps another goal for another 15 years will be set– Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2030. It will draw criticism & sarcasm but there is no denying that humanity is getting more and more concerned and determined to make it a much better world in the foreseeable future. In the words of Bill Gates “By almost any measure, the world is better than it has ever been. People are living longer, healthier lives. Many nations that were aid recipients are now self-sufficient. You might think that such striking progress would be widely celebrated, but in fact, Melinda and I are struck by how many people think the world is getting worse. The belief that the world can’t solve extreme poverty and disease isn’t just mistaken. It is harmful…..” (from Melinda & Bill Gates Annual Letter, 2014).

We must appreciate that great strides have been made in almost all areas of human endeavor- science, trade, society, art, sports, culture…every sphere. It may yet not be as we desire it to be. But it is substantial. And directional. Again to borrow from Melinda & Bill Gates’ letter: “a baby born in 1960 had an 18 percent chance of dying before her fifth birthday. For a child born today, the odds are less than 5 percent. In 2035, they will be 1.6 percent. I can’t think of any other 75-year improvement in human welfare that would even come close.” He further comments on this optimistic trend: “I am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction. By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world. (I mean by our current definition of poor.).”

  

A Tale of Two Cities

Mexico City 1980                                                                                   Mexico City 2011

[Courtesy: Melinda & Bills Annual Letter 2014]

While these expectations are based on reality, there are some amazing predictions by futurologists. They feel humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in all of human history. By 2030 the average person in the U.S. will travel 40% of the time in a driverless car, use a 3D printer to print hyper-individualized meals, and will spend most of their leisure time on an activity that hasn’t been invented yet. The world will have seen over 2 billion jobs disappear, with most coming back in different forms in different industries, with over 50% structured as freelance projects rather than full-time jobs. Over 50% of today’s Fortune 500 companies will have disappeared, over 50% of traditional colleges will have collapsed, and India will have overtaken China as the most populous country in the world. By 2030 80% of all doctor visits will have been replaced by automated exams and most people will have stopped taking pills in favor of a new device that causes the body to manufacture it’s own cures. Space colonies, personal privacy, and flying cars will all be hot topics of discussion, but not a reality yet.”

[http://www.wfs.org/blogs/thomas-frey/33-dramatic-predictions-for-2030]

It sounds cool. Shows great faith in human capabilities. But little sky-fi types, right? So let’s get back to track one above. Let’s make a more realistic To Do List for 2030 for our own country- India (that is 1/6^th of earth’s people anyway). Let’s flag it as #2030NOW. That envisions by 2030, in India:

1)     Absolute poverty will be thing of past. Hunger & malnutrition too

2)     All will have access to safe drinking water & sanitation

3)     All will have basic housing. And all homes are lit in the night

4)     Illiteracy will be thing of past. Higher education will be pervasive and hybrid- combination of digital & conventional

5)     All will have basic health insurance coverage. And life expectancy (at birth) will cross 70 years

6)     All will be financially included. And mobile banking a routine thing.

7)     Successful PPP models in critical services, at scale.

8)     10 medals in Olympics, qualified for FIFA cup, 5^th time World Champion in Cricket

9)     Couple of Nobel prizes more

10)  Bullet trains plying between some major metros

And

11)  Unemployment will still be a problem- but less acute

12)  Quality of public services & faculties will still be sub-optimal- but no more dismal

13)  Hardliners and regressive forces will still be there- though much less active

14)  Corruption will still haunt us- though much contained, much less rampant

15)  Ganga not fully rid of pollution yet- but floods & land erosions contained

16)  Space exploration beyond Mars yet to succeed- but in the offing

All this could be a reality in 2030. For that we need to strengthen four pillars of our society:

Youth: Our future is our youth. Any country’s is. But we have the largest young population un the earth! And they are more aware, educated and aspiring than ever before. They are more connected, more active and there is more much solidarity for worthy causes. They are eager to experiment, innovate and push the boundaries. They love fun, peace, knowledge and above all doing. And they are capable like never before. This youth power if harnessed and energized towards the greater good it can do miracle. In business, in social solutions, in science, sports & art and even in governance. We need to listen and respond to their voices- in social media or at home. And above all we need to create the ambiance where rote learning is not the order, dissent is not frowned upon, mediocrity is not thrust upon them, unconventional is not taboo. We need to recognize and reward the Malalalas and Zukerbergs we have among our youth. And believe me there are so many of them. Waiting to be unleashed. They can move the earth. It reminds Swami Vivekananda: “Give me 1000 young boys & girls, I will change the world.”

Institutions: Its our past. We cannot bask in those past glories forever. We need to modernize them- make them ‘upto the speed’. And it’s a real challenge here. Much needs to be done. Structurally indeed, but lot more needs to be done about mindsets and vested interests. Autonomy of the institutions is non-negotiable. But so is its accountability. All the institutions- whether in governance, research, education, healthcare, trade & commerce or sports or culture and yes, civil society organizations- all needs to spell out its mandates, targets & deliverables and should be evaluated on those.  All stake holders in these institutions should aspire to be world-class while delivering the best for its clients (generally public) in the most transparent & efficient ways. Here the ROI is of prime consideration- not necessarily in financial terms but definitely in terms of its stated goals & objectives. For next fifteen years the message should go loud & clear: shape up or ship out. For all concerned.

Government: Government is best as the enabler and regulator. It should be led by statesmanship- not by partisan considerations. Government should function within the framework of Constitution only- not by ruling party’s priorities (or compulsions). If the civil servants stick to this wonderful instrument of governance i.e. Constitution, and if the political leadership/ ministers stick to their oath of undiluted public service, much of the desired outcome can be achieved easily- and definitely by 2030. All it needs to do is to get rid of petty politics, archaic laws, and procedural bottlenecks and that can be done with strong political will and servant-leader attitude. If leaders set the right strategic priorities, the prospect of a virtuous cycle of development that transforms whole societies is very real. If we only follow Gandhi’s thought: “Recall the face of the poorest and weakest man you have seen, and ask yourself if this step you contemplate is going to be any use to him”, most of the policies and, strategies will become simpler, humane and would deliver results that matter. One more thing, government should do what it does best- augment opportunities, build infrastructures, harness networks, create the environment for growth and be open, flexible and responsive to the needs of the time. It should be sensitive to its potential partners in progress- civil society, private sector, academics and must take on board similar efforts of development – converging rather than monopolizing.

Citizens- last but not the least, we ourselves. We need to be less tolerant sometimes. Towards inequity, injustice, corruption & sufferings. We cannot look the other way when rights are violated, public places are littered or bribes are demanded. We cannot look through when a half-naked boy collects garbage or when homeless beggars freeze in the open. We need to be more in tune with to our children- our future. We should dream their dreams- rather than imposing ours. We should not hold them back because the convention or neighbors or extended family says so. And we should learn to take things in hand rather than a spectator. We should not live in silos, in glasshouses thinking it a tiny paradise that is never disturbed by the world outside. We should engage- whether in keeping the neighborhood clean or keeping harmony in the community or protesting against unjust social mores or institutional excesses or to respond to the call of services (in cases of disasters, poverty, illiteracy and so on) or to demand services and accountability or to exercise the voting franchise thoughtfully. A thriving citizenry will ensure a vibrant future- for all of us. This will help us overcome today’s shortcomings. By 2030. For sure.